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Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
polymarket

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Aug 4, 2026, 8:26 PM EST - Sep 30, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$320,014
Volume 24h:
$235,049N/A
Liquidity:
$63,637
24%
Open interest:
$14,966N/A

October 31

 - Polymarket

October 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 30, 2026

Time left: 04d:17h:47m

Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?

1%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 0.7¢ buys you 14,286 shares | Odds: 1% Total Payout: $14,286 | Net Profit: $14,186 Multiplier: 142.86x | ROI: 14,186% APY not meaningful 4 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

October 31

Trade
1%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.4¢
0.1¢
$63,637
$93,894
11%
N/A
N/A
4d 17h 47m
active
polymarket

September 30

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$173,344
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

August 31

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$52,776
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island. "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island. "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.