TOTAL VOLUME:

$41.6b

24H VOL:

$113,284,831

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,858,735,640

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,620,345,032

79,029

Markets across

1,359

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

138

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

BETA
Dashboards
Tour
All
Other
Fed Decision in December?
polymarket

Fed Decision in December?

Jul 29, 2026, 8:43 PM EST - Dec 9, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$4,767,814
Volume 24h:
$66,368
8%
Liquidity:
$815,750
4%
Open interest:
$651,079N/A

25 bps increase

 - Polymarket

25 bps increase - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 9, 2026

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

76%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 76¢ buys you 132 shares | Odds: 76% Total Payout: $132 | Net Profit: $32 Multiplier: 1.32x | ROI: 32% High Projected APY: 927% 43 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

25 bps increase

Trade
76%
Yes 76¢No 25¢
1¢
$156,877
$1,196,937
0.59%
N/A
N/A
1mo 1w 6d
active
polymarket

No change

21%
Yes 22¢No 80¢
2¢
$196,342
$1,050,708
1%
N/A
N/A
1mo 1w 6d
active
polymarket

50+ bps increase

3%
Yes 2.7¢No 97.4¢
0.1¢
$135,492
$644,844
0.82%
N/A
N/A
1mo 1w 6d
active
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.4¢
0.3¢
$117,450
$809,113
0.32%
N/A
N/A
1mo 1w 6d
active
polymarket

25 bps decrease

1%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.4¢
0.1¢
$209,589
$1,066,212
4%
N/A
N/A
1mo 1w 6d
active
Total markets: 5

Description

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Polymarket

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.