TOTAL VOLUME:

$27.2b

24H VOL:

$75,165,326

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,095,709,366

58,436

Markets across

1,256

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

98

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

53%

VS.

Kalshi:

47%

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Fed rate cut by...?
polymarket
kalshi

Fed rate cut by...?

Total volume:
$4,273,170
Volume 24h:
$6,616
85%
Liquidity:
$304,600
6%
Open interest:
$496,395
0.29%

December Meeting

 - Polymarket

December Meeting - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 8, 2027

Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?

12%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 12¢ buys you 833 shares | Odds: 12% Total Payout: $833 | Net Profit: $733 Multiplier: 8.33x | ROI: 733% APY not meaningful 132 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December Meeting

Trade
12%
Yes 12¢No 89¢
1¢
$64,393
$292,347
0.37%
4%
N/A
4mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Cuts

Trade
10%
Yes 10.2¢No 89.9¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,034,043
0.53%
4%
$496,395
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

October Meeting

Trade
5%
Yes 5.1¢No 95.2¢
0.3¢
$124,603
$114,620
0.08%
12%
N/A
2mo 1w 4d
active
polymarket

September Meeting

Trade
2%
Yes 1.6¢No 98.5¢
0.1¢
$115,603
$336,958
0%
21%
N/A
1mo 1w 3d
active
polymarket

June Meeting

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$784,968
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

January Meeting

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$588,115
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

July Meeting

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$579,140
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

April Meeting

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$542,979
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

March Meeting

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This group of markets tracks whether the Federal Reserve will cut its target federal funds rate by specific Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting dates between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different deadline, ranging from January 2026 to December 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Timing and scope mismatch between Polymarket's meeting-specific deadlines and Kalshi's broader date range.Hero tip: Traders should be cautious about the different timeframes and conditions for each platform. A rate cut occurring after a Polymarket deadline but within the Kalshi window will result in divergent outcomes across platforms.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Rate cut must occur before the completion of a specific FOMC meeting, with a grace period extending to a set date if the meeting is delayed. Example: "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28."
  • Kalshi: Rate cut must occur between February 26, 2026 and December 31, 2026, with no specific meeting requirement. Example: "If the Federal Reserve cuts its target federal funds rate range at least once between February 26, 2026 and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

If the Federal Reserve cuts its target federal funds rate range at least once between February 26, 2026 and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.