TOTAL VOLUME:

$26.9b

24H VOL:

$53,643,865

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,063,853,505

56,734

Markets across

1,194

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

96

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

53%

VS.

Kalshi:

47%

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Gemini 4.0 released by...?
polymarket

Gemini 4.0 released by...?

Dec 12, 2025, 4:47 PM EST - Nov 30, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$298,112
Volume 24h:
$128,058
1,265%
Liquidity:
$26,443
25%
Open interest:
$81,765N/A

November 30

 - Polymarket

November 30 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 1, 2026

Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?

87%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 88¢ buys you 114 shares | Odds: 87% Total Payout: $114 | Net Profit: $14 Multiplier: 1.14x | ROI: 14% | APY: 63% 95 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

November 30

Trade
87%
Yes 88¢No 14¢
2¢
$8,896
$3,305
283%
N/A
N/A
3mo 5d
active
polymarket

October 31

Trade
84%
23%
Yes 84¢No 35¢
19¢
$2,662
$1,030
1,379%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

September 15

Trade
59%
Yes 59¢No 93¢
52¢
$288
$22
0%
N/A
N/A
2w 5d 18h
active
polymarket

September 30

Trade
38%
Yes 38¢No 63¢
1¢
$12,151
$124,787
11%
N/A
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

August 31

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.5¢
0.4¢
$2,446
$57,756
2%
N/A
N/A
4d 18h 16m
active
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$92,161
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

July 31

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,051
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.