TOTAL VOLUME:

$41.1b

24H VOL:

$108,040,032

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,819,523,799

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,638,571,346

66,513

Markets across

1,349

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

139

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

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Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
Trending
polymarket
kalshi
predict

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Total volume:
$94,414,728
Volume 24h:
$8,379,684
31%
Liquidity:
$30,487,991
8%
Open interest:
$16,800,251
19%

Harry Kane

all

3 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?

68%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 69¢ buys you 145 shares | Odds: 68% Total Payout: $145 | Net Profit: $45 Multiplier: 1.45x | ROI: 45% High Projected APY: 655% 67 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Harry Kane

Trade
68%
4%
Yes 69¢No 32¢
1¢
N/A
$3,334,114
7%
N/A
$2,172,819
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

Harry Kane

Trending
Trade
68%
4%
Yes 68¢No 32.1¢
0.1¢
$166,130
$8,063,011
9%
N/A
N/A
20h 22m
active
predict

Harry Kane

Trade
59%
Yes 58.9¢No 41.2¢
0.1¢
$123,554
$96,106
0%
N/A
N/A
4d 16h 23m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
67.9%
Yes 65.3¢No 35.1¢
Avg: 0.4¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Kylian Mbappe

Trade
25%
5%
Yes 24¢No 77¢
1¢
N/A
$5,467,942
30%
N/A
$3,493,219
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

Kylian Mbappé

Trade
22%
5%
Yes 21.9¢No 78.9¢
0.8¢
$105,453
$7,447,063
14%
N/A
N/A
20h 22m
active
predict

Kylian Mbappé

Trade
8%
Yes 7.9¢No 92.2¢
0.1¢
$86,519
$53,213
0%
N/A
N/A
4d 16h 23m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
22.9%
Yes 17.9¢No 82.7¢
Avg: 0.6¢Max: 1¢
predict

Cristiano Ronaldo

Trade
20%
Yes 20¢No 80¢
—
$8,645
$27
0%
N/A
N/A
4d 16h 23m
active
predict

Raphinha

Trade
10%
Yes 10¢No 90¢
—
$5,438
$1
0%
N/A
N/A
4d 16h 23m
active
predict

Lamine Yamal

Trade
18%
Yes 17.7¢No 82.4¢
0.1¢
$32,756
$56,196
0%
N/A
N/A
4d 16h 23m
active
kalshi

Lamine Yamal

Trade
10%
2%
Yes 11¢No 90¢
1¢
N/A
$4,338,051
18%
N/A
$2,881,190
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

Lamine Yamal

Trending
Trade
9%
1%
Yes 9.3¢No 90.8¢
0.1¢
$152,846
$6,637,696
11%
N/A
N/A
20h 22m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
9.6%
Yes 12.7¢No 87.7¢
Avg: 0.4¢Max: 1¢
predict

Desire Doue

Trade
7%
Yes 7¢No 93¢
—
$5,441
$26
0%
N/A
N/A
4d 16h 23m
active
predict

Lionel Messi

Trade
5%
Yes 10¢No 99.6¢
9.6¢
$5,659
$554
0%
N/A
N/A
4d 16h 23m
active
polymarket

Lionel Messi

Trending
Trade
1%
Yes 1.1¢No 99.1¢
0.2¢
$383,966
$6,569,658
10%
N/A
N/A
20h 22m
active
kalshi

Lionel Messi

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$5,411,789
16%
N/A
$3,521,896
2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 4.4¢No 99.2¢
Avg: 3.6¢Max: 9.6¢
kalshi

Nuno Mendes

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$32,356
0%
N/A
$10,400
2mo 1w
active
predict

Rodri

Trade
8%
Yes 8¢No 92.1¢
0.1¢
$109,499
$58,609
0%
N/A
N/A
4d 16h 23m
active
kalshi

Rodri

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,876,605
5%
N/A
$1,298,999
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

P

Trending
Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$547,297
$4,603,826
9%
N/A
N/A
20h 22m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.5%
Yes 3.1¢No 97.3¢
Avg: 0.4¢Max: 1¢
predict

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

Trade
12%
Yes 12¢No 88¢
—
$5,655
$4
0%
N/A
N/A
4d 16h 23m
active
kalshi

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,031,404
18%
N/A
$937,938
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$254,875
$4,699,075
12%
N/A
N/A
20h 22m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.3%
Yes 4.4¢No 96¢
Avg: 0.6¢Max: 1¢
predict

Ousmane Dembélé

Trade
4%
Yes 7¢No 99.5¢
6.5¢
$5,378
$84
0%
N/A
N/A
4d 16h 23m
active
kalshi

Ousmane Dembele

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,181,230
4%
N/A
$752,487
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

Ousmane Dembélé

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$354,435
$5,155,142
16%
N/A
N/A
20h 22m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.2%
Yes 2.7¢No 99.8¢
Avg: 3.8¢Max: 6.5¢
Total markets: 25 of 100

Description

This prediction group forecasts the winner of the 2026 Ballon d'Or award, recognizing the world's best male football player. Markets are available on various platforms, each offering probabilities for different players to win the prestigious award.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms consistently resolve to the winner as declared by France Football, with a fallback to 'Other' if no winner is announced by the specified deadline.Primary resolution logic: France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/)

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to the player officially awarded the 2026 Ballon d'Or by France Football.
  • If France Football does not announce a winner by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tie: In the extremely unlikely event of a tie, France Football's official decision will determine the resolution. If France Football does not resolve the tie, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
  • Cancellation: If the Ballon d'Or award is cancelled for 2026, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
Timing: The market will resolve upon the official announcement of the 2026 Ballon d'Or winner by France Football, or on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if no winner is declared.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Kalshi

If Kylian Mbappe wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lamine Yamal wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Harry Kane wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Erling Haaland wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Declan Rice wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Vitinha wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michael Olise wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Raphinha wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lionel Messi wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Vinicius Junior wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bukayo Saka wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Luis Diaz wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Pedri wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Cristiano Ronaldo wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rayan Cherki wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jude Bellingham wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ousmane Dembele wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Desire Doue wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mohamed Salah wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Cole Palmer wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Scott McTominay wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nuno Mendes wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bruno Fernandes wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bradley Barcola wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lautaro Martinez wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tijjani Reijnders wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Phil Foden wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gianluigi Donnarumma wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rodri wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marcus Rashford wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Khvicha Kvaratskhelia wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).