TOTAL VOLUME:
$27.2b
24H VOL:
$69,287,501
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,087,562,910
57,539
Markets across
1,212
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
98
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
53%
VS.
Kalshi:
47%
Carlos Alcaraz
- Kalshi
Carlos Alcaraz - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Sep 14, 2026
Time left: 16d:19h:48m
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the US Open Men's Singles?
$
Description
This event group covers a WTA tennis match between Francesca Jones and Noma Noha Akugue scheduled for Rome on July 17, 2026. Markets span match outcome, set winners, game totals, and set handicaps. Kalshi contains an unrelated US Open Men's Singles market that appears to be a data error.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi market references 2026 US Open Men's Singles (33 player conditions), while Polymarket references WTA Rome match between Francesca Jones and Noma Noha Akugue. These are entirely different events with no logical connection. Kalshi appears to contain a data integrity failure or misconfiguration.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets are linked. Kalshi's US Open conditions have zero bearing on the Jones vs Akugue outcome. Treat as two separate, unrelated markets. Escalate Kalshi labeling to support for clarification before trading.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Market contains 33 conditions, each resolving to Yes if a named male player (Sinner, Djokovic, Alcaraz, etc.) wins the 2026 US Open Men's Singles. Quote: 'If Jannik Sinner wins the 2026 US Open Men's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.' No reference to Jones, Akugue, or Rome WTA event.
- Polymarket: 16 markets all reference the specific WTA match: Jones vs Akugue, Rome, July 17, 2026, 4:00 AM ET. Markets cover match winner, set winners, game totals, and set handicaps. Quote: 'This market refers to the tennis match between Francesca Jones and Noma Noha Akugue in the Rome, originally scheduled for July 17, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.'
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Francesca Jones and Noma Noha Akugue in the Rome, originally scheduled for July 17, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Francesca Jones' if Francesca Jones advances against Noma Noha Akugue. This market will resolve to 'Noma Noha Akugue' if Noma Noha Akugue advances against Francesca Jones. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
The market resolves based on the winner of the 2026 US Open Men's Singles professional tennis tournament. If any participant forfeits, withdraws from consideration, or takes any official action that removes them from being able to win the tournament, that participant's market will resolve No. Only the player who ultimately wins the tournament by completing all required matches will have their market resolve Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price outcomes using different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous buying and selling. On this market, the odds you see reflect what thousands of independent traders collectively believe will happen, rather than a bookmaker's calculated spread. Prediction market prices often incorporate real-time information faster than sportsbooks update their lines, though both can diverge based on their respective participant bases and risk appetites.
This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The specific result—whether tied to match winner, set score, or another metric—will be assessed against established tennis records and official tournament data. Both platforms will independently verify the result and settle all positions accordingly. Traders should monitor official announcements and reputable sports news sources as the date approaches to stay informed on any scheduling changes or other developments that might affect resolution timing.
Player injury reports, recent form and head-to-head records, court surface conditions, and weather forecasts are key catalysts that typically shift odds on tennis matches. Betting syndicate activity or large trades on either platform can also trigger rapid repricing. News about player fitness, coaching changes, or mental state closer to match day often drives late momentum. Additionally, if either player competes in tune-up events beforehand, their performance there may influence trader sentiment. Monitor sports media, official tour announcements, and social signals from both players to anticipate potential market moves.
