TOTAL VOLUME:
$26.9b
24H VOL:
$74,125,922
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,074,751,399
57,323
Markets across
1,220
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
96
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
53%
VS.
Kalshi:
47%
No change
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Predict
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Sep 16, 2026
Latest in Politics
Time left: 19d:16h:14m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
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Description
This event group tracks the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision following the September 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. It will resolve based on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate compared to the level prior to the meeting, with changes rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Predict use identical resolution logic based on the FOMC's September 2026 meeting outcome and the same official sourcesPrimary resolution logic: FOMC’s statement after the September 2026 meeting and the Federal Reserve's official websiteCore resolution logic:
- Change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is calculated versus the level prior to the September 2026 meeting
- Any change is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points (e.g., 12.5 bps becomes 25 bps)
- If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, resolves to "No change"
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Partial Basis Point Change: Changes not expressed in 25 bps increments will be rounded up to the nearest 25 bps (e.g., 12.5 bps cut becomes 25 bps cut)
- No Statement Released: If no FOMC statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, all markets resolve to the "No change" bracket
Polymarket
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Predict
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
