TOTAL VOLUME:
$27.2b
24H VOL:
$75,165,326
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,095,709,366
58,436
Markets across
1,256
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
98
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
53%
VS.
Kalshi:
47%
No change
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Predict
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Oct 28, 2026
Latest in Financials
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
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Description
This event group tracks whether the Federal Reserve will adjust interest rates by specific amounts after its October 2026 meeting. The markets resolve based on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range, rounded to the nearest 25 basis points if necessary.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms use identical resolution logic based on the FOMC statement after the October 2026 meetingPrimary resolution logic: FOMC statement after the October 27-28, 2026 meetingCore resolution logic:
- Change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range determines resolution
- Changes are rounded to the nearest 25 basis points if necessary
- Markets resolve as soon as the FOMC statement is issued
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Partial Change Rounding: If the actual change is 12.5 basis points, it will be rounded up to 25 basis points and resolve to the relevant bracket
- No Statement Fallback: If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, all markets resolve to the No Change bracket
Polymarket
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Predict
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
