TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.6b
24H VOL:
$113,284,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,858,735,640
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,620,345,032
79,029
Markets across
1,359
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
138
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Before Apr 1, 2027
- Kalshi
Before Apr 1, 2027 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Apr 1, 2027
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
$
Description
This group forecasts whether Anthropic, an artificial intelligence safety and research company, will have an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by a specific date. The markets consider various dates throughout 2026 and 2027 as potential IPO deadlines.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket includes an acquisition clause that disqualifies IPO resolution if Anthropic is acquired by a public company, while Kalshi does not.Hero tip: Prioritize Polymarket markets due to their explicit handling of the acquisition risk. Be aware that Kalshi markets may remain open even if an acquisition occurs.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves Yes if Anthropic shares are listed and trading by the specified date. Resolves to No if Anthropic is acquired by a public company. "This market will resolve to "No."
- Kalshi: Resolves Yes if Anthropic confirms an IPO before a specified date. No mention of acquisition impacting resolution. "If Anthropic confirms an IPO before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
An IPO is confirmed upon the earliest occurrence of: (1) the SEC declaring Anthropic's Form S-1 effective, (2) the IPO being priced, or (3) a securities exchange assigning a ticker symbol. The market resolves to Yes immediately upon confirmation of any of these events, regardless of when trading actually begins. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific deadline date, with resolution occurring if confirmation happens before that date.
