TOTAL VOLUME:
$26.9b
24H VOL:
$53,643,865
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,063,853,505
56,734
Markets across
1,194
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
96
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
53%
VS.
Kalshi:
47%
0 (0 bps)
- Polymarket
0 (0 bps) - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
Latest in Financials
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
$
Intro
This market tracks whether the Federal Reserve will implement rate cuts during 2026, measured in 25 basis point increments. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—no Fed rate cuts in 2026—stands at 83.5%, while exactly one rate cut in 2026 is priced at 12.5%. Resolution will be determined by FOMC statements following scheduled meetings in 2026 and official Federal Reserve publications on the target federal funds rate. Watch the December 31, 2026 market close, which marks the final deadline for resolution and accounts for any emergency rate actions taken outside regularly scheduled FOMC meetings.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
