TOTAL VOLUME:

$26.9b

24H VOL:

$53,643,865

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,063,853,505

56,734

Markets across

1,194

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

96

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

53%

VS.

Kalshi:

47%

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What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?
kalshi
polymarket

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?

Dec 23, 2025, 10:00 AM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 4:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$6,500,437
Volume 24h:
$26,032
89%
Liquidity:
$106,138
7%
Open interest:
$4,202,261
0.38%

↓ $7,000

 - Polymarket

↓ $7,000 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (LOW) in December?

95%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 95¢ buys you 105 shares | Odds: 95% Total Payout: $105 | Net Profit: $5 Multiplier: 1.05x | ROI: 5% | APY: 16% 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

↓ $7,000

Trade
95%
Yes 95¢No 74¢
69¢
$1,837
$200
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑ $8,000

Trade
87%
Yes 87¢No 81¢
68¢
$250
$489
0%
1%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑ $8,200

Trade
40%
Yes 41¢No 61¢
2¢
$18,349
$22,195
0.18%
0.18%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

8,000 to 8,199.99

Trade
17%
Yes 19¢No 83¢
2¢
N/A
$436,171
2%
13%
$218,596
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

7,800 to 7,999.99

Trade
15%
Yes 15¢No 86¢
1¢
N/A
$422,739
0.34%
4%
$216,017
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

7,600 to 7,799.99

Trade
13%
Yes 13¢No 88¢
1¢
N/A
$438,023
0.71%
6%
$183,780
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑ $8,600

Trade
12%
Yes 14¢No 91¢
5¢
$20,807
$29,749
0%
13%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↓ $6,200

Trade
11%
Yes 11.2¢No 89¢
0.2¢
$3,428
$46,299
1%
4%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

8,200 to 8,399.99

Trade
10%
Yes 10¢No 91¢
1¢
N/A
$283,520
0.32%
3%
$174,252
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

7,400 to 7,599.99

Trade
9%
Yes 9¢No 92¢
1¢
N/A
$429,786
0%
4%
$215,378
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↓ $6,000

Trade
9%
Yes 9¢No 92¢
1¢
$1,631
$2,375
126%
347%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↓ $5,800

Trade
8%
Yes 8¢No 93¢
1¢
$2,107
$39,893
0%
4%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑ $9,000

Trade
7%
Yes 9¢No 96¢
5¢
$264
$68
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

7,200 to 7,399.99

Trade
6%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
N/A
$299,290
0.92%
5%
$162,870
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

8,400 to 8,599.99

Trade
6%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
N/A
$183,428
0.14%
5%
$154,248
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↓ $5,200

Trade
6%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
$31,413
$54,074
0.56%
6%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑ $9,300

Trade
5%
Yes 6.1¢No 96.5¢
2.6¢
$757
$9,465
0%
2%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

6,800 to 6,999.99

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 98¢
2¢
N/A
$268,464
0.04%
6%
$160,942
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

7,000 to 7,199.99

Trade
4%
1%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
1¢
N/A
$245,883
0%
8%
$166,868
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

8,600 to 8,799.99

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$168,223
0%
0.06%
$136,092
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑ $10,000

Trade
3%
Yes 4.8¢No 98.4¢
3.2¢
$190
$103
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↓ $4,500

Trade
3%
Yes 3.1¢No 97¢
0.1¢
$23,034
$59,513
1%
6%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

8,800 to 9,000

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$255,766
0%
1%
$148,980
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

9,000.01 or above

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$246,447
1%
5%
$155,948
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

6,600 to 6,799.99

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$197,871
0.76%
4%
$150,498
4mo 6d
active
Total markets: 25 of 46

Description

This event group tracks two distinct types of S&P 500 (SPX) performance metrics for December 2026: end-of-month closing value thresholds and intra-month high/low price breaches.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental divergence in measurement methodology: Kalshi uses end-of-month closing value ranges while Polymarket uses intra-month high/low breachesHero tip: Treat these as separate bets. A Kalshi contract can resolve 'Yes' even if Polymarket's equivalent 'HIGH' market resolves 'No' (if SPX closes in the target range but never touched the intra-day high), and vice versa. Always verify which resolution rule applies to your position.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves based on SPX closing value at 4pm EST on Dec 31, 2026 falling within one of 27 consecutive ~200-point ranges from below 4000 up to above 9000
  • Polymarket: Resolves based on whether SPX reached specific high/low thresholds at any trading moment during December 2026, using Yahoo Finance 1-minute candles
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December 2026?

Kalshi

The S&P 500 index value on December 31, 2026 at 4:00 PM EST determines the resolution. The market is divided into 27 outcomes, each covering a 200-point range (or similar increments), starting from 3,999.99 or below through 9,000.01 or above. Resolution occurs at the sooner of the first official data release or one week after December 31, 2026. Per Kalshi's rulebook, the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets have been modified; traders should consult the rules for specific details on data sourcing and index calculation methodology.