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$41.6b

24H VOL:

$113,284,831

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2,858,735,640

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$1,620,345,032

79,029

Markets across

1,359

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

138

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

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VS.

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What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?
polymarket
kalshi

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?

Dec 23, 2025, 10:00 AM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 4:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$8,535,512
Volume 24h:
$1,925,171N/A
Liquidity:
$138,621
3%
Open interest:
$5,395,266
0.26%

↑ $8,000

 - Polymarket

↑ $8,000 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in December?

46%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 93¢ buys you 108 shares | Odds: 46% Total Payout: $108 | Net Profit: $8 Multiplier: 1.08x | ROI: 8% | APY: 50% Low liquidity 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

↑ $8,000

Trade
46%
Yes 93¢No 56¢
49¢
$373
$923
0.54%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

↓ $7,400

Trade
43%
Yes 86¢No 53¢
39¢
$328
$846
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

↓ $7,200

Trade
32%
Yes 39¢No 77¢
16¢
$358
$2,017
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

↓ $7,000

Trade
26%
Yes 38¢No 73¢
11¢
$5,199
$3,278
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

↑ $8,200

Trade
26%
4%
Yes 30¢No 79¢
9¢
$9,551
$27,210
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

7,800 to 7,999.99

Trade
21%
1%
Yes 23¢No 78¢
1¢
N/A
$614,681
0.59%
N/A
$286,310
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

7,600 to 7,799.99

Trade
17%
Yes 16¢No 85¢
1¢
N/A
$569,690
1%
N/A
$233,403
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

8,000 to 8,199.99

Trade
14%
2%
Yes 15¢No 86¢
1¢
N/A
$626,142
0.18%
N/A
$294,952
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

↓ $6,200

Trade
13%
Yes 16¢No 89.5¢
5.5¢
$16,568
$75,884
2%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

7,400 to 7,599.99

Trade
11%
2%
Yes 10¢No 91¢
1¢
N/A
$553,228
0.03%
N/A
$278,044
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

↓ $6,000

Trade
11%
Yes 12¢No 91¢
3¢
$15,260
$6,541
0.15%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

7,200 to 7,399.99

Trade
9%
2%
Yes 8¢No 93¢
1¢
N/A
$397,992
0.03%
N/A
$233,276
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

8,200 to 8,399.99

Trade
7%
Yes 8¢No 93¢
1¢
N/A
$408,585
1%
N/A
$229,416
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

6,800 to 6,999.99

Trade
6%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$371,382
0%
N/A
$253,862
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

↑ $8,600

Trade
6%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
$17,113
$41,481
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

↓ $5,800

Trade
4%
Yes 5¢No 96.1¢
1.1¢
$17,348
$51,395
0.48%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

7,000 to 7,199.99

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$350,824
0%
N/A
$242,324
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

↓ $5,200

Trade
3%
Yes 3.7¢No 97.1¢
0.8¢
$21,041
$81,648
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

8,400 to 8,599.99

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$296,884
0%
N/A
$194,623
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

6,600 to 6,799.99

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$296,804
0%
N/A
$245,419
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

↓ $4,500

Trade
3%
Yes 3.1¢No 98.1¢
1.2¢
$18,251
$69,542
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

6,400 to 6,599.99

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$313,778
0%
N/A
$245,461
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

6,200 to 6,399.99

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$293,637
0%
N/A
$245,245
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

↑ $9,300

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 98.3¢
0.3¢
$16,404
$15,338
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

↑ $10,000

Trade
1%
Yes 1.6¢No 99¢
0.6¢
$644
$467
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
Total markets: 25 of 46

Description

These markets ask forecasters to predict whether the S&P 500 index will reach specific price levels by the end of December 2026. Polymarket markets focus on whether the S&P 500 will *hit* a certain price at any point during the month, while Kalshi markets focus on the index value at a specific time on the last day of the year.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket focuses on any intraday 'hit' of a price, while Kalshi focuses on the index value at a specific time on the last day of the year, creating a significant difference in resolution criteria.Hero tip: Polymarket markets are more sensitive to short-term price fluctuations. Kalshi markets require sustained price levels.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if the S&P 500 hits a specified price at any point during December, using 1-minute candle data. The resolution source is Yahoo Finance.
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if the S&P 500 index value falls within a specified range on December 31, 2026 at 4pm EST. Multiple ranges are defined for 'Yes' resolution.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December 2026?

Kalshi

The S&P 500 index value on December 31, 2026 at 4:00 PM EST determines the resolution. The market is divided into 27 outcomes, each covering a 200-point range (or similar increments), starting from 3,999.99 or below through 9,000.01 or above. Resolution occurs at the sooner of the first official data release or one week after December 31, 2026. Per Kalshi's rulebook, the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets have been modified; traders should consult the rules for specific details on data sourcing and index calculation methodology.