TOTAL VOLUME:
$26.9b
24H VOL:
$53,643,865
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,063,853,505
56,734
Markets across
1,194
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
96
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
53%
VS.
Kalshi:
47%
Before 2027
- Kalshi
Before 2027 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Related News
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Jan 1, 2027?
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Description
This group of markets predicts whether OpenAI will release a model explicitly named GPT-6 (or recognized successor to GPT-5) to the general public by various dates in 2026. Markets require public accessibility via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups, excluding closed betas or private access.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets share identical core criteria: public accessibility via open beta/open waitlist, explicit GPT-6 naming or GPT-5 successor recognition, and reliance on OpenAI announcements + credible reporting consensus.Primary resolution logic: Official OpenAI announcements + consensus of credible reporting (tech news outlets, major media)Core resolution logic:
- GPT-6 must be explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g., ChatGPT-6o) or recognized as the direct successor to GPT-5
- Public accessibility required via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups — closed betas or private access do not qualify
- Release must be announced by OpenAI as generally public and accessible to the general public
Edge cases & clarifications:
- GPT-5.5 or similar: Models labeled GPT-5.5, GPT-5.7, etc., do NOT count even if functionally similar to GPT-6
- Partial public access: Any access that is not fully open to the general public (e.g., invite-only, paid tiers, enterprise-only) does NOT qualify
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kalshi
The event resolves to Yes if OpenAI publicly releases a model named GPT-6 or a subsequent version—meaning any model explicitly labeled as 'GPT-6' or higher—before any of the specified deadlines ranging from June 1, 2026, to January 1, 2027. The release must be made available to the public, not confined to a closed beta environment. However, the model can be accessible only through a high-cost subscription tier without affecting the resolution. The earliest applicable deadline that is met will trigger a Yes outcome, with all later deadlines becoming irrelevant once a qualifying release occurs. If no such model is released by January 1, 2027, the event resolves to No.
