TOTAL VOLUME:
$26.9b
24H VOL:
$53,643,865
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,063,853,505
56,734
Markets across
1,194
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
96
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
53%
VS.
Kalshi:
47%
Anthropic
- Polymarket
Anthropic - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Related News
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
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Description
This event group determines which company will have the best AI model as measured by the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of December 2026. The markets resolve based on the ranking of models on the leaderboard at a specific time on December 31, 2026.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Settlement Value Mismatch / SKU RiskHero tip: Traders should be cautious as these markets resolve based on entirely different criteria. Polymarket's market depends on a leaderboard ranking at a specific future date, while Kalshi's markets are triggered by product releases from Google.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard ranking at 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026, using arena rank and arena score as tiebreakers. "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard... Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score... If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker."
- Kalshi: Resolves based on whether Google releases a model named Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater before specific dates in 2026. "If Google releases A model called Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater before [specific date], then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple potential release dates for Google's Gemini 3.5 Pro or a subsequent version, spanning from June 30, 2026, to August 31, 2026. For any date listed, if Google publicly releases the model—meaning it is not confined to a closed beta and is accessible to the general public, even if through a high-cost subscription—the market resolves to Yes for that specific date market. Each market operates independently based on its respective deadline, and the consistent secondary rule ensures that a public release, regardless of accessibility tier, satisfies the condition for resolution.
