TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.1b
24H VOL:
$94,100,224
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,819,523,799
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,635,541,893
67,901
Markets across
1,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
139
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Claude
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
Related News
Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?
$
Description
This group asks which company will have the best AI model as determined by its ranking on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of 2026. The markets aim to predict leadership in the rapidly evolving field of large language models.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi only considers a subset of companies, while Polymarket includes a broader list and uses alphabetical tiebreakers for unnamed companies.Hero tip: Focus on the companies listed on Kalshi, as those are the only ones that can resolve a 'Yes' outcome there. Polymarket offers broader exposure but introduces risk related to the ambiguous 'Company' options.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on the highest arena rank on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) as of December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Includes 27 companies, with alphabetical tiebreakers if Arena scores are equal.
- Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if one of 8 specifically listed companies (Baidu, Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Meta, Alibaba, Moonshot) has the top-ranked LLM on December 31, 2026.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes based on which company's LLM holds the top rank on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard on December 31, 2026. Tiebreaking procedures apply: if two models are tied under Rank (UB), the model with the highest Arena Score wins; if still tied, the model with the most votes wins; if still tied, the earlier-released model wins. The 'Remove Style Control' toggle should be checked when verifying the source.
