TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.6b
24H VOL:
$113,284,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,858,735,640
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,620,345,032
79,029
Markets across
1,359
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
138
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Before 2028
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 31, 2027
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jan 1, 2028?
$
Description
This event group concerns the potential merger or acquisition of Tesla and SpaceX. The markets ask whether an official announcement of a definitive agreement for a merger or acquisition will occur by a specified date. A 'Yes' resolution requires an official announcement of a binding agreement resulting in a transfer of controlling interest.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Kalshi and Polymarket markets share identical core resolution criteria regarding the announcement of a definitive agreement for a merger or acquisition resulting in a controlling interest transfer.Primary resolution logic: Official information from Tesla or SpaceX; consensus of credible reportingCore resolution logic:
- A 'Yes' resolution requires an official announcement by Tesla or SpaceX.
- The announcement must concern a definitive, binding agreement for a merger or acquisition.
- The agreement must result in a transfer of controlling interest in either Tesla or SpaceX.
- Partial sales that result in a controlling interest transfer are also considered a 'Yes' resolution.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Announcement vs. Completion: The markets resolve based on the *announcement* of the agreement, not the actual completion of the merger or acquisition.
- Controlling Interest: A 'controlling interest' is defined as ownership sufficient to control strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity or equivalent control via voting rights.
- Credible Reporting: If official sources are ambiguous, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine if an announcement has been made.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
A merger or acquisition between Tesla and SpaceX is confirmed when either company officially announces a definitive, binding agreement resulting in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation under common ownership. The announcement must be made through official channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company. CEO statements qualify only if they constitute unambiguous, affirmative confirmation of a definitive signed agreement—not expressions of intent, hypotheticals, negotiation updates, or speculative comments. Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, and third-party announcements without company confirmation do not satisfy the resolution criteria. The market resolves Yes regardless of which entity is the acquirer or whether the structure is a reverse merger or stock-for-stock combination, provided a definitive agreement is publicly announced before the specified deadline.
