TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.6b
24H VOL:
$113,284,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,858,735,640
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,620,345,032
79,029
Markets across
1,359
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
138
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Before Jun 1, 2027
- Kalshi
Before Jun 1, 2027 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jun 30, 2027
Latest in Companies
When will OpenAI IPO?
$
Description
This group forecasts whether OpenAI will conduct an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by a specific date. An IPO is defined as the first sale of stock to the public on a recognized stock exchange. Acquisition of OpenAI by a publicly traded company would negate the IPO outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: The platforms differ in the granularity of IPO deadlines, creating multiple potential resolution points and requiring traders to monitor several markets.Hero tip: Focus on the Polymarket markets with the nearest deadlines for quicker potential resolution. Be mindful that a 'Yes' resolution on one Kalshi market doesn't guarantee a 'Yes' on all others.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if OpenAI completes an IPO by the listed date (e.g., August 31, 2026) as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, 'No'. "If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."
- Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if OpenAI confirms an IPO before a series of dates spanning from June 1, 2026 to June 1, 2027. Each date represents a separate market.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Kalshi
OpenAI's IPO is confirmed upon the earliest occurrence of any of three events: SEC declaration that the company's Form S-1 is effective, the IPO being priced, or a securities exchange assigning a ticker symbol to the company. Once any of these milestones occurs, the market resolves to Yes immediately, regardless of when actual trading begins. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific deadline date; if confirmation occurs before that date, the outcome resolves Yes. The resolution is based on official regulatory filings, pricing announcements, or exchange assignments made through verifiable channels.
