TOTAL VOLUME:

$41.1b

24H VOL:

$94,100,224

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,819,523,799

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,635,541,893

67,901

Markets across

1,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

139

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

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World
How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
kalshi
polymarket

How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

Total volume:
$1,111,248
Volume 24h:
$100,928N/A
Liquidity:
$6,478
48%
Open interest:
$263,775
0.04%

Above 120

 - Kalshi

Above 120 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 6% 66 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 120

Trade
99%
Yes 99¢No 2¢
1¢
N/A
$42,331
0.47%
N/A
$17,882
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

140-159

Trade
75%
7%
Yes 75.6¢No 35.3¢
10.9¢
$795
$50,393
0.06%
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 140

Trade
74%
Yes 76¢No 26¢
2¢
N/A
$95,478
0%
N/A
$26,855
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 145

Trade
21%
Yes 24¢No 78¢
2¢
N/A
$27,940
0%
N/A
$18,555
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

120-139

Trade
7%
1%
Yes 10.9¢No 96.1¢
7¢
$986
$5,479
0.55%
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 150

Trade
5%
Yes 7¢No 95¢
2¢
N/A
$54,254
0.05%
N/A
$28,356
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

180-199

Trade
5%
Yes 7.3¢No 97.4¢
4.7¢
$1,250
$61,743
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

200 or more

Trade
3%
Yes 4.4¢No 97.6¢
2¢
$1,326
$107,356
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 200

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$34,476
0%
N/A
$8,102
2mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.1%
Yes 3.2¢No 98.3¢
Avg: 1.5¢Max: 2¢
kalshi

Above 160

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
1¢
N/A
$187,742
0.05%
N/A
$53,470
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 170

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$90,407
0%
N/A
$30,551
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 190

Trade
3%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$47,543
0%
N/A
$16,355
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

160-179

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 98.6¢
1.6¢
$2,121
$102,511
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 180

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$135,798
0.02%
N/A
$43,543
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 210

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$52,326
0%
N/A
$20,106
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

100-119

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,657
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
No
polymarket

<100

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,815
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This group forecasts the total number of SpaceX launches occurring throughout the year 2026. Resolution will be based on the official launch count reported by SpaceX. The markets offer various ranges and thresholds for the total launch count.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi markets resolve to 'Yes' if a threshold is exceeded *during* the year, while Polymarket markets resolve to a range based on the *final* launch count at year-end.Hero tip: Be aware of the different resolution triggers. Kalshi markets can resolve early, while Polymarket markets require waiting until the end of 2026.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket markets are structured as ranges and a 'less than' option, resolving based on the total number of launches at the end of 2026. If the launch count falls exactly on a range boundary, the higher range resolves. "If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket."
  • Kalshi: Kalshi markets are 'over/under' style, resolving to 'Yes' if the launch count exceeds a specific threshold *at any point* during 2026. "If SpaceX has more than 120 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the total count of SpaceX launches in 2026 according to FAA source agency data. Each threshold (120, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, 190, 200, and 210+ launches) constitutes a separate resolution criterion. If FAA data is delayed, the market will expire and resolve following data availability in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.