TOTAL VOLUME:
$27.2b
24H VOL:
$75,165,326
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,095,709,366
58,436
Markets across
1,256
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
98
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
53%
VS.
Kalshi:
47%
Atletico Madrid
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Kalshi
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Oct 2, 2026
Time left: 04d:15h:40m
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?
$
Description
This event group tracks potential transfer destinations for soccer player Julian Alvarez, focusing on whether he will move to specific clubs before a defined deadline.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi uses a single market resolving to Yes for any transfer to listed clubs, while Polymarket uses individual binary markets with specific fallback rulesHero tip: Focus on Kalshi if betting on any listed club transfer generally. For Polymarket, consider hedging across individual club markets since a transfer to any listed club will resolve all corresponding Polymarket markets to Yes simultaneouslyCritical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if Alvarez's next club is ANY of the 13 listed teams before Oct 2, 2026
- Polymarket: Individual binary markets for each club with fallback to Atletico Madrid if no transfer, or Other if transfer to unlisted team or no team by Sept 1, 2026
Polymarket
This market will resolve to the next team Julian Alvarez officially joins by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If Julian Alvarez does not officially join a new team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Atletico Madrid". If Julian Alvarez joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other". If Julian Alvarez is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". An official transfer announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Atletico Madrid and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Kalshi
The event resolves to Yes for a specific club market if Julian Alvarez becomes associated with that club through any valid transfer mechanism before October 2, 2026. This includes permanent transfers via fee or free agency, temporary loans, contract renewals or extensions while already at the club, and pre-contract agreements for future transfers. If Alvarez signs with a club and is immediately loaned elsewhere, only the signing club's market resolves to Yes. All other club markets resolve to No in this case. If Alvarez's current contract expires without signing with any club before the deadline, all markets resolve to No. Each club-specific market operates independently under these consistent resolution principles.
