TOTAL VOLUME:

$26.9b

24H VOL:

$53,643,865

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,063,853,505

56,734

Markets across

1,194

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

96

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

53%

VS.

Kalshi:

47%

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Best AI at the end of 2026?
kalshi

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 2026, 10:00 AM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$9,401,289
Volume 24h:
$51,148
9%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$5,761,849
0.7%

Claude

 - Kalshi

Claude - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?

69%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 68.7¢ buys you 146 shares | Odds: 69% Total Payout: $146 | Net Profit: $46 Multiplier: 1.46x | ROI: 46% | APY: 197% 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Claude

Trade
69%
1%
Yes 68.7¢No 32.5¢
1.2¢
N/A
$2,069,203
0.76%
3%
$1,040,008
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

ChatGPT

Trade
16%
3%
Yes 15.9¢No 86¢
1.9¢
N/A
$1,740,258
0.48%
3%
$994,379
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Grok

Trade
9%
2%
Yes 11¢No 91.7¢
2.7¢
N/A
$1,387,827
0.45%
5%
$876,400
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Gemini

Trade
8%
Yes 8¢No 92.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,421,281
0%
2%
$858,504
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Muse Spark

Trade
2%
Yes 1.8¢No 98.3¢
0.1¢
N/A
$988,322
2%
5%
$596,534
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Kimi

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$628,758
0.39%
4%
$460,228
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Qwen

Trade
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.5¢
0.3¢
N/A
$641,885
0.39%
1%
$482,771
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Ernie

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
N/A
$523,753
0.01%
3%
$453,026
4mo 6d
active
Total markets: 8

Intro

This market tracks which company will have developed the top-ranked large language model according to the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard as of the end of 2026. On Kalshi, Baidu achieving the best AI holds 63.1% probability, while another outcome carries 18.0% probability. The resolution source is the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard ranking on December 31, 2026. Watch for major LLM releases and benchmark performance updates throughout 2026, as these will directly influence which model ranks highest when the betting period closes on December 31, 2026.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes based on which company's LLM holds the top rank on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard on December 31, 2026. Tiebreaking procedures apply: if two models are tied under Rank (UB), the model with the highest Arena Score wins; if still tied, the model with the most votes wins; if still tied, the earlier-released model wins. The 'Remove Style Control' toggle should be checked when verifying the source.