TOTAL VOLUME:

$27.2b

24H VOL:

$69,287,501

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,087,562,910

57,539

Markets across

1,212

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

98

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

53%

VS.

Kalshi:

47%

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Bitcoin above ___ on August 26?
polymarket
kalshi

Bitcoin above ___ on August 26?

Total volume:
$7,768,014
Volume 24h:
$2,774,485
123%
Liquidity:
$0
100%
Open interest:
$3,139,000
39%

Above $82,500.00

 - Kalshi

Above $82,500.00 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 1, 2026

Time left: 03d:18h:51m

Will BTC trimmed mean be above $82500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026?

31%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 32¢ buys you 313 shares | Odds: 31% Total Payout: $313 | Net Profit: $213 Multiplier: 3.13x | ROI: 213% APY not meaningful 3 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $82,500.00

Trade
31%
Yes 32¢No 69¢
1¢
N/A
$893,613
13%
269%
$292,344
3d 18h 51m
active
kalshi

Above $85,000.00

Trade
15%
2%
Yes 12¢No 89¢
1¢
N/A
$445,702
32%
0%
$248,521
3d 18h 51m
active
kalshi

Above $87,500.00

Trade
6%
1%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
N/A
$200,860
41%
0%
$124,189
3d 18h 51m
active
kalshi

Above $90,000.00

Trade
5%
1%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
1¢
N/A
$351,546
10%
0%
$237,926
3d 18h 51m
active
kalshi

Above $112,500.00

Trade
4%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$821
0%
N/A
$521
3d 18h 51m
active
kalshi

Above $92,500.00

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$90,048
12%
0%
$46,681
3d 18h 51m
active
kalshi

Above $100,000.00

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$83,764
4%
0%
$71,781
3d 18h 51m
active
kalshi

Above $95,000.00

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$59,863
0.47%
0%
$47,013
3d 18h 51m
active
kalshi

Above $127,500.00

Trade
2%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$400
0%
N/A
$400
3d 18h 51m
active
kalshi

Above $102,500.00

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$34,742
1%
0%
$32,339
3d 18h 51m
active
kalshi

Above $97,500.00

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$26,390
5%
0%
$23,704
3d 18h 51m
active
kalshi

Above $105,000.00

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$13,878
0%
0%
$12,463
3d 18h 51m
active
kalshi

Above $107,500.00

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$6,117
0%
0%
$5,569
3d 18h 51m
active
kalshi

Above $130,000.00

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,819
0%
N/A
$2,397
3d 18h 51m
active
kalshi

Above $110,000.00

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,421
0%
N/A
$2,124
3d 18h 51m
active
kalshi

Above $122,500.00

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,275
0%
N/A
$2,275
3d 18h 51m
active
kalshi

Above $115,000.00

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,695
0%
N/A
$1,695
3d 18h 51m
active
kalshi

Above $132,500.00

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,600
2%
N/A
$1,500
3d 18h 51m
active
kalshi

Above $125,000.00

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,433
0%
N/A
$1,033
3d 18h 51m
active
kalshi

Above $117,500.00

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$343
0%
N/A
$343
3d 18h 51m
active
kalshi

Above $120,000.00

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$231
0%
N/A
$231
3d 18h 51m
active
kalshi

Above $70,000.00

View
100%
34%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$736,268
N/A
N/A
$349,164
3d 18h 51m
Yes
polymarket

70,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$103,178
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above $67,500.00

View
100%
62%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$675,703
N/A
N/A
$345,853
3d 18h 51m
Yes
kalshi

Above $75,000.00

View
100%
81%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$589,345
N/A
N/A
$208,692
3d 18h 51m
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 42

Description

This event group consists of multiple markets predicting whether Bitcoin's price will exceed various thresholds on August 26. Each market has a different price threshold, creating a range of possible outcomes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Threshold and timing mismatch between platformsHero tip: Focus on Polymarket for precise August 26 noon snapshots; Kalshi markets act as binary triggers over a longer period. Verify which market type matches your trading intent.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves if BTC price is ever above specified thresholds after issuance through 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026
  • Polymarket: Resolves based on Binance 1-minute candle close price at 12:00 ET (noon) on August 26
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Kalshi

All markets share the same event-level rules: each resolves to 'Yes' if Bitcoin's price, measured minute-by-minute throughout the period from issuance until 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, ever exceeds the specified threshold. Settlement uses a trimmed mean calculation—removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of minute-by-minute price data—to mitigate the impact of extreme volatility. If any single minute's trimmed mean price crosses the threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes'. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, all affected markets resolve to 'No'. The specific version or ticker of Bitcoin tracked will be designated by the Exchange.