TOTAL VOLUME:

$27.2b

24H VOL:

$69,287,501

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,087,562,910

57,539

Markets across

1,212

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

98

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

53%

VS.

Kalshi:

47%

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Economics
Fed decision in Sep 2026?
kalshi

Fed decision in Sep 2026?

Sep 29, 2025, 10:00 AM EST - Sep 16, 2026, 2:05 PM EST
Total volume:
$15,849,354
Volume 24h:
$696,780
65%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$12,575,019
5%

Fed maintains rate

 - Kalshi

Fed maintains rate - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 16, 2026

Time left: 19d:08h:55m

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?

70%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 70¢ buys you 143 shares | Odds: 70% Total Payout: $143 | Net Profit: $43 Multiplier: 1.43x | ROI: 43% APY not meaningful 19 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Fed maintains rate

Trade
70%
Yes 70¢No 31¢
N/A
$6,027,487
2%
31%
$4,454,148
2w 5d 8h
active
kalshi

Hike 25bps

31%
Yes 31¢No 70¢
N/A
$3,170,898
1%
17%
$1,956,339
2w 5d 8h
active
kalshi

Cut 25bps

1%
1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$5,009,413
12%
71%
$4,671,918
2w 5d 8h
active
kalshi

Hike >25bps

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$823,031
0.38%
3%
$681,699
2w 5d 8h
active
kalshi

Cut >25bps

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$818,526
0.89%
18%
$810,914
2w 5d 8h
active
Total markets: 5

Description

These markets track the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision at their scheduled September 16, 2026 meeting, specifically whether they will cut rates, maintain rates, or raise rates and by how much. The outcomes are mutually exclusive, with only one resolving to Yes based on the actual policy action announced that day.

Kalshi

On September 16, 2026, the Federal Reserve will announce a monetary policy decision. These markets collectively cover all possible outcomes: a rate cut exceeding 25 basis points, a 25 basis point cut, no change (0 basis points), a 25 basis point hike, or a hike exceeding 25 basis points. The markets are mutually exclusive—exactly one outcome will resolve to Yes based on the Fed's actual announced action, and all others will resolve to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, the "Fed maintains rate" outcome resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.