TOTAL VOLUME:
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56,734
Markets across
1,194
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
96
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
53%
VS.
Kalshi:
47%
December 31
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Predict
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Latest in Commodities
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
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Description
This event group tracks whether Crude Oil will reach a new all-time high by specified future dates. The threshold for a new all-time high is $147.27, and the resolution depends on official daily high prices published by the CME Group for the Active Month of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms use identical criteria for determining whether Crude Oil reaches a new all-time high by the specified date, based on CME Group published data.Primary resolution logic: CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html)Core resolution logic:
- The market resolves to 'Yes' if the official daily high price for the Active Month of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures exceeds $147.27 on any trading day up to and including the final trading day of the specified period.
- The market resolves to 'No' if the threshold is not breached by the time finalized data for the final trading day of the period is published.
- The Active Month is the nearest contract month, switching to the next listed contract two business days before spot month expiration.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Active Month Change: If the Active Month changes during the period, the new Active Month's prices are used for resolution after the switch occurs two business days prior to spot month expiration.
- Early Resolution: If the price exceeds $147.27 at any point during the period, the market resolves immediately to 'Yes' without waiting for the period end.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Predict
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.