TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.6b
24H VOL:
$113,284,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,858,735,640
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,620,345,032
79,029
Markets across
1,359
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
138
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
$100M
- Polymarket
$100M - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2028
Latest in Crypto
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?
$
Description
These markets ask whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Variational's token will exceed a specified amount one day after its launch. The FDV is calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price. Resolution depends on a publicly tradable, fungible token launch.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Predict use the same FDV calculation, launch timing, and fallback resolution criteria (No if no launch by 12/31/2027).Primary resolution logic: Most liquid price source available (e.g., major exchanges)Core resolution logic:
- FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price.
- Resolution occurs 24 hours after launch, defined as 4:00 PM ET the following calendar day.
- The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable.
- The token must be fungible (e.g., ERC-20, SPL).
- If no token launch occurs by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to 'No'.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Launch Delay: If the launch is delayed beyond December 31, 2027, all markets resolve to 'No'.
- Non-Fungible Token: If Variational launches a non-fungible token (NFT), the markets resolve to 'No'.
- Price Manipulation: The resolution source will attempt to identify and disregard any obvious price manipulation.
- Trading Halts: Temporary trading halts will not prevent resolution, as long as a liquid price is available at the specified resolution time.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Predict
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. The token must be fungible, meaning all units of the token are identical and interchangeable. Examples of qualifying fungible token standards include: - ERC-20 or compatible/derivative standards on any EVM-compatible chain - SPL / SPL Token-2022 standard on Solana - Native blockchain tokens (e.g., a project's own Layer 1 chain coin) - Equivalent fungible token standards on other blockchains Non-fungible tokens such as ERC-1155 tokens will not qualify for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Variational, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
