TOTAL VOLUME:

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$94,100,224

24H TRANSACTIONS:

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OPEN INTEREST:

$1,635,541,893

67,901

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Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
polymarket

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Nov 12, 2025, 5:46 PM EST - Mar 1, 2027, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$3,818,619
Volume 24h:
$912,072N/A
Liquidity:
$225,983
4%
Open interest:
$263,540N/A

1

 - Polymarket

1 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Mar 1, 2027

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

88%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 89¢ buys you 112 shares | Odds: 88% Total Payout: $112 | Net Profit: $12 Multiplier: 1.12x | ROI: 12% | APY: 40% 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

1

Trade
88%
3%
Yes 89¢No 14¢
3¢
$15,466
$736,845
0.27%
N/A
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

2

Trade
11%
2%
Yes 12¢No 90¢
2¢
$12,495
$476,369
0.09%
N/A
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

3

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$60,908
$536,337
0.16%
N/A
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

5

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$43,168
$908,684
0%
N/A
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

6 or lower

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$25,702
$605,367
0.03%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

4

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$68,244
$555,017
0%
N/A
N/A
4mo 6d
active
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.