TOTAL VOLUME:

$26.9b

24H VOL:

$53,643,865

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,063,853,505

56,734

Markets across

1,194

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

96

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

53%

VS.

Kalshi:

47%

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Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
polymarket
kalshi

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Total volume:
$3,665,176
Volume 24h:
$1,037
56%
Liquidity:
$141,112
5%
Open interest:
$120,066
0.05%

1

 - Polymarket

1 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

74%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 75¢ buys you 133 shares | Odds: 74% Total Payout: $133 | Net Profit: $33 Multiplier: 1.33x | ROI: 33% | APY: 130% 125 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

1

Trade
74%
Yes 75¢No 27¢
2¢
$13,512
$579,725
0.03%
1%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
kalshi

Hottest

Trade
71%
1%
Yes 72.4¢No 28.5¢
0.9¢
N/A
$300,248
0.15%
5%
$120,066
4mo 1w
active
polymarket

2

Trade
22%
Yes 23¢No 79¢
2¢
$5,163
$400,075
0.04%
1%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

3

Trade
2%
Yes 2.1¢No 98¢
0.1¢
$34,399
$500,570
0%
0.59%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

4

Trade
1%
Yes 1.3¢No 99.1¢
0.4¢
$32,806
$521,918
0%
2%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

6 or lower

Trade
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.3¢
0.1¢
$20,810
$536,782
0.01%
0.48%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

5

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$34,421
$825,858
0.01%
0.63%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
Total markets: 7

Description

This event group determines the ranking of the year 2026 among the hottest years on record based on NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. Markets assess whether 2026 will rank as the hottest, second-hottest, third-hottest, fourth-hottest, fifth-hottest, or sixth-hottest/year lower.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets have fundamentally different resolution criteria: Polymarket resolves based on the numerical rank of 2026, while Kalshi resolves based on a temperature threshold relative to 2025.Hero tip: Avoid cross-platform arbitrage between these markets. Focus on one platform based on your temperature projection methodology.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on the numerical rank of 2026 compared to all other years using NASA's Land-Ocean Temperature Index (unsmoothed data). 'Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?' resolves to Yes if 2026 is ranked #1.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s GISS is above the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Kalshi

If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes.