TOTAL VOLUME:

$26.9b

24H VOL:

$53,643,865

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,063,853,505

56,734

Markets across

1,194

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

96

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

53%

VS.

Kalshi:

47%

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Which company has the best AI model end of September?
polymarket

Which company has the best AI model end of September?

Jul 20, 2026, 8:30 PM EST - Sep 30, 2026, 7:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$581,123
Volume 24h:
$30,971
37%
Liquidity:
$676,117
7%
Open interest:
$53,552N/A

Anthropic

 - Polymarket

Anthropic - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 30, 2026

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

90%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 90¢ buys you 111 shares | Odds: 90% Total Payout: $111 | Net Profit: $11 Multiplier: 1.11x | ROI: 11% | APY: 210% 34 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Anthropic

Trade
90%
Yes 90¢No 11¢
$85,386
$73,387
0%
56%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

Google

4%
2%
Yes 4.8¢No 96.4¢
1.2¢
$21,285
$41,859
43%
149%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

OpenAI

4%
2%
Yes 3.7¢No 96.5¢
0.2¢
$16,734
$36,424
9%
77%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

SpaceXAI

1%
1%
Yes 1.3¢No 99.1¢
0.4¢
$27,840
$34,551
9%
81%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

Meta

0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.6¢
0.1¢
$31,534
$30,789
15%
119%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

DeepSeek

0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.8¢
0.2¢
$29,248
$29,497
11%
60%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

Alibaba

0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$32,993
$39,477
0%
112%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

Z.ai

0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$33,161
$36,910
0%
181%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

Xiaomi

0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$25,445
$32,813
0%
151%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

Microsoft

0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$20,049
$30,104
10%
54%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

Moonshot

0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$29,997
$24,164
16%
88%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

ByteDance

0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$33,940
$22,881
0%
84%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

StepFun

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
$33,795
$21,501
0%
52%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

Amazon

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
$32,963
$19,033
0%
25%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

Meituan

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
$35,268
$18,597
0%
77%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

Baidu

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
$37,237
$16,753
0%
25%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

Nvidia

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
$34,894
$16,539
0%
21%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

Mistral

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
$12,969
$14,486
0%
16%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

MiniMax

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
$33,024
$14,320
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

Thinky

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
$34,085
$14,148
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

Tencent

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
$34,267
$12,889
0%
91%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
Total markets: 21

Description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".