TOTAL VOLUME:

$41.1b

24H VOL:

$94,100,224

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,819,523,799

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,635,541,893

67,901

Markets across

1,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

139

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Financials
Other
Economics
Entertainment
Science and Technology
World
Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
kalshi

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

Nov 9, 2025, 10:00 AM EST - Jan 1, 2027, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$437,561
Volume 24h:
$3,024
43%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$115,760
0.6%

Hottest

 - Kalshi

Hottest - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

80%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 79.7¢ buys you 125 shares | Odds: 80% Total Payout: $125 | Net Profit: $25 Multiplier: 1.25x | ROI: 25% | APY: 244% 67 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Hottest

Trade
80%
Yes 79.7¢No 21.9¢
1.6¢
N/A
$437,561
0.7%
N/A
$115,760
2mo 1w
active
Total markets: 1

Description

This event tracks whether the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index for the year 2026, as reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, will exceed both the previous year's value and a specific temperature threshold. It reflects expectations about global temperature trends and potential changes in climate conditions. The outcome depends on official climate data releases and comparisons with historical records.

Kalshi

If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes.