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Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
polymarket

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Dec 29, 2025, 6:25 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$340,933
Volume 24h:
$131N/A
Liquidity:
$1,081
30%
Open interest:
$7,232N/A

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

 - Polymarket

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

16%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 17¢ buys you 588 shares | Odds: 16% Total Payout: $588 | Net Profit: $488 Multiplier: 5.88x | ROI: 488% APY not meaningful 125 days to resolution
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Chance %
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Spread
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Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
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polymarket

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Trade
16%
Yes 17¢No 86¢
$1,081
$340,933
0.04%
0.11%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
Total markets: 1

Description

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

Polymarket

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.