TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.6b
24H VOL:
$113,284,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,858,735,640
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,620,345,032
79,029
Markets across
1,359
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
138
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Kalshi
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 3, 2026
Latest in Politics
Time left: 07d:18h:04m
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
$
Description
This group forecasts the winner of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. Markets exist on Polymarket and Kalshi, each offering individual questions for numerous potential candidates. Resolution will depend on official election results or, in the event of delays, potentially on a consensus of major news sources.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets resolve based on the same core criteria: the candidate officially declared the winner of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election.Primary resolution logic: Official certification of election results by the State of Alaska.Core resolution logic:
- Resolution is determined by the candidate who receives the most votes in the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election.
- Both platforms specify a fallback to major news sources (Associated Press, Fox News, NBC for Polymarket) if official certification is delayed beyond July 31, 2027.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Delayed Certification: If official results are not certified by July 31, 2027, Polymarket will resolve based on a consensus call from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. Kalshi does not explicitly state a deadline, but relies on official results or a clear winner declared by credible sources.
- Tie: In the event of a tie, the resolution source (official certification or news sources) will determine the winner according to Alaska election law. This is consistent across both platforms.
- Candidate Withdrawal: If a candidate withdraws before the election, markets for that candidate will likely resolve to 'No'. This is implied by the nature of the markets and the resolution criteria.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Kalshi
The official rules for these markets dictate that each individual market resolves to 'Yes' if the respective named candidate is elected governor of Alaska in the 2026 election. Acceleration of resolution is permitted once a consensus of major media organizations projects a winner, allowing for timely closure of markets based on reliable, widely accepted information. This mechanism ensures that outcomes align with real-world events as reported by authoritative sources, maintaining the integrity and relevance of the prediction markets.