TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.1b
24H VOL:
$108,040,032
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,819,523,799
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,638,571,346
66,513
Markets across
1,349
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
139
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Pete Ricketts
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 4, 2027
Latest in Politics
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Nebraska?
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Description
This event group concerns the outcome of the 2026 Nebraska U.S. Senate election. Markets aim to predict which party or candidate will win the election and be sworn into office for the term beginning in 2027.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi focuses on party/candidate representation being sworn in, while Polymarket focuses on the declared winner of the election as called by major news sources.Hero tip: Be aware that Kalshi's markets are sensitive to the *actual swearing-in* of a Senator, which could differ from the initially reported election winner. Polymarket's markets are tied to the news media's call of the election.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on the declared winner of the 2026 Nebraska Senate election, using a three-source media consensus (AP, Fox, NBC) or official certification. "This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate."
- Kalshi: Resolves if a representative of a specific party (Republican, Democrat) or a specific independent candidate (Dan Osborn) is sworn in as a Senator for the term beginning in 2027. "If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Nebraska for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the party affiliation or independent status of the individual sworn in as Senator of Nebraska for the 2027 term. A Republican party representative being sworn in resolves one outcome to Yes. A Democratic party representative being sworn in resolves a different outcome to Yes. An independent candidate being sworn in resolves yet another outcome to Yes.