TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.6b
24H VOL:
$116,649,581
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,859,322,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,625,723,678
80,271
Markets across
1,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
138
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Rob Sand (D)
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Kalshi
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 14, 2027
Latest in Politics
Time left: 07d:15h:49m
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
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Description
This event group concerns the outcome of the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election. Markets aim to predict which party (Democrat or Republican) will win, or if another candidate will succeed. Resolution hinges on official election results and media calls.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms ultimately resolve based on the same criteria: the party affiliation of the inaugurated governor, using the same resolution sources.Primary resolution logic: Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (with fallback to official certification)Core resolution logic:
- The market resolves to 'Yes' if a Democratic or Republican candidate is inaugurated as Governor of Iowa.
- Independent candidates are not considered part of either the 'Democrat' or 'Republican' outcome.
- Resolution is triggered by a consensus call from AP, Fox News, and NBC, or official certification if no consensus is reached.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Candidate Replacement: If a nominee is replaced before election day, the market resolves based on the replacement nominee of the same party.
- Tie: In the unlikely event of a tie, the official certification will determine the winner and resolve the market.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Kalshi
The 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election will determine the state's next governor. Resolution occurs upon the inauguration of the elected governor following the 2026 election. The market encompasses both major party candidates, with resolution triggered when a representative of either the Democratic or Republican party is inaugurated to the office of Governor of Iowa pursuant to the 2026 election results.