TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.1b
24H VOL:
$108,040,032
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,819,523,799
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,638,571,346
66,513
Markets across
1,349
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
139
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
James Talarico
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 4, 2027
Latest in Politics
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?
$
Description
This group forecasts the winner of the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election. Markets cover both party-level outcomes (Democrat vs. Republican) and specific candidate wins, as well as the possibility of an 'other' candidate winning. Resolution relies on official election results and major news sources.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms focus on the party affiliation of the individual sworn into office as the Senator for Texas, beginning in 2027, effectively aligning their resolution criteria.Primary resolution logic: Official certification of election results and swearing-in of the Senator.Core resolution logic:
- The market resolves to 'Yes' if a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Texas for the term beginning in 2027.
- The market resolves to 'Yes' if a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Texas for the term beginning in 2027.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Runoff Election: If a runoff election is required, the market will resolve based on the winner of the runoff election who is ultimately sworn into office.
- Candidate Withdrawal: If a candidate withdraws before the election, markets related to that candidate will likely be adjusted or cancelled at the platform's discretion, but the overall election outcome market will remain valid.
- Independent Candidate: Independent candidates are not considered part of the 'Democrat' or 'Republican' resolution criteria.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by which party affiliation the individual sworn in as Senator of Texas for the 2027 term represents. A Republican party representative being sworn in resolves one outcome to Yes, while a Democratic party representative being sworn in resolves a different outcome to Yes.