TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.1b
24H VOL:
$108,040,032
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,819,523,799
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,638,571,346
66,513
Markets across
1,349
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
139
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Ashley Moody (R)
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Kalshi
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 1, 2026
Latest in Politics
Time left: 08d:21h:25m
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
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Description
This group forecasts the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election. Markets resolve based on which candidate is sworn in as Senator, with a focus on Democratic or Republican representation. The election is currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, inclusive of any run-offs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms focus on the same event – the 2026 Florida Senate election – and utilize similar resolution criteria based on the winning candidate being sworn in, with a reliance on major news sources or official certification.Primary resolution logic: Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (with fallback to official certification)Core resolution logic:
- The market resolves to the candidate who is sworn in as a U.S. Senator for Florida following the November 3, 2026 election (or any runoff).
- Resolution is determined by a consensus call from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If no consensus is reached, the official certification will be used.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Candidate Replacement: If a nominee is replaced before election day, the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the same party.
- Independent Candidates: Independent candidates will not be considered as 'Democrat' or 'Republican' options.
- Runoff Election: The market includes any potential runoff election following the initial November 3, 2026 vote.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the party affiliation of the individual sworn in as Florida Senator for the term beginning in 2027. If a Republican is sworn in, the market for Ashley Moody resolves to Yes. Conversely, if a Democrat is sworn in, the market for Angie Nixon resolves to Yes. Both markets are eligible for accelerated determination once a consensus of media organizations projects a clear winner, allowing for resolution prior to the official swearing-in ceremony. The final outcome is contingent upon the formal certification of election results and the subsequent oath of office taken by the elected official.