TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.1b
24H VOL:
$108,040,032
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,819,523,799
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,638,571,346
66,513
Markets across
1,349
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
139
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Democrats Sweep
all
3 markets
Polymarket
Kalshi
Predict
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Feb 1, 2027
Time left: 08d:21h:16m
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
$
Description
This event group forecasts the party control of the US House and Senate following the 2026 midterm elections. Resolution hinges on determining which party holds a majority of seats in each chamber, with tie-breaking rules involving the Vice President (Senate) and Speaker of the House (House).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Differing resolution sources and tie-breaking mechanisms create potential for inconsistent outcomes across platforms.Hero tip: Prioritize markets using a consensus of major news sources (AP, Reuters, etc.) for more reliable resolution. Be mindful of potential delays if sources disagree.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves using official sources (election authorities, Congress) and credible reporting. Tie-breaking in the Senate uses the President Pro Tempore's party affiliation.
- Predict: Resolves using AP, Fox News, and NBC. Tie-breaking in the Senate uses the Majority Leader's party affiliation.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chambers. For determining Senate control, all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For determining House control, all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Kalshi
This combination market requires all specified components to occur simultaneously for a Yes resolution. The four possible outcomes are: Democrats control both chambers, Republicans control both chambers, Democrats control the House while Republicans control the Senate, or Republicans control the House while Democrats control the Senate. Control is determined by the party affiliation of the Speaker of the House and President pro tempore of the Senate on February 1, 2027. If any single component becomes impossible or resolves to No, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to standard Kalshi control rules.
Predict
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification