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Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
polymarket
kalshi

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Total volume:
$6,045,243
Volume 24h:
$36,340
88%
Liquidity:
$93,688
13%
Open interest:
$705,245
0.3%

In 2026

 - Kalshi

In 2026 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 07d:04h:02m

Will a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative in California pass?

26%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 26¢ buys you 385 shares | Odds: 26% Total Payout: $385 | Net Profit: $285 Multiplier: 3.85x | ROI: 285% APY not meaningful 7 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

In 2026

Trade
26%
2%
Yes 26¢No 75¢
1¢
N/A
$1,809,459
0.37%
N/A
$705,245
1w 4h
active
polymarket

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Trade
24%
Yes 24¢No 77¢
1¢
$93,688
$4,235,784
0.71%
N/A
N/A
1w 18h
active
Total markets: 2

Description

This group asks whether California voters will approve a one-time wealth tax targeting billionaires in the November 2026 election. The tax would apply to individuals with at least $1 billion in net worth. Resolution depends on the official results of the California election and whether a qualifying initiative makes it onto the ballot.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Kalshi agree that the market resolves based on the passage of a California ballot initiative imposing a one-time wealth tax on billionaires.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the Government of the State of California

Core resolution logic:

  • A qualifying ballot initiative must be certified for the November 3, 2026 election.
  • The initiative must impose a one-time tax on individuals, households, or family units with wealth/assets/net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent).
  • The initiative must pass in the November 3, 2026 election.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • No Initiative on Ballot: If no qualifying initiative is certified by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'No'.
  • Initiative Removed/Amended: If a qualifying initiative is removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the wealth threshold drops below $1 billion, the market resolves to 'No'.
Timing: The market will resolve after the official results of the November 3, 2026 California election are certified by the Government of the State of California, but no later than when official election results are available.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

If a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative in California passes, then the market resolves to Yes.