TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.6b
24H VOL:
$113,284,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,858,735,640
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,620,345,032
79,029
Markets across
1,359
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
138
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Fed Decision in October?
No change
all
3 markets
Polymarket
Kalshi
Predict
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Oct 28, 2026
Latest in Financials
Time left: 01d:17h:53m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
$
Description
This event group concerns the Federal Reserve's decision regarding interest rates at its October 2026 meeting. Markets ask whether the Fed will increase, decrease, or leave rates unchanged, specified in basis points. Resolution hinges on the change to the upper bound of the target federal funds rate.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi markets resolve on a specific date (October 28, 2026) and define outcomes as direct cuts/hikes, while Polymarket allows for rounding to the nearest 25 bps and relies on the FOMC statement.Hero tip: Focus on the likely magnitude of the rate change. If a change is expected near a 25 bps threshold, the rounding rule on Polymarket could significantly impact the outcome compared to Kalshi's precise cut/hike definitions.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate after the October 2026 FOMC meeting, rounding changes to the nearest 25 bps. Resolution source is the FOMC statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
- Kalshi: Resolves based on whether the Federal Reserve does a cut or hike of specific amounts (25bps, >25bps, 0bps) on October 28, 2026. No explicit rounding rule is mentioned.
Polymarket
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Kalshi
All markets in this event are mutually exclusive, meaning only one outcome can resolve to Yes while all others resolve to No. Each market corresponds to a specific rate change: cuts of 25bps, hikes of 25bps, hikes of >25bps, or maintaining the current rate (0bps change). If the Federal Reserve implements a rate change that matches any of the defined thresholds, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. If the scheduled meeting is canceled and does not occur on its designated date, the 'Fed maintains rate' market automatically resolves to Yes, and all other markets resolve to No. This structure ensures that regardless of the meeting's outcome or cancellation, exactly one market will resolve to Yes, enforcing clear resolution across all possible scenarios.
Predict
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.