TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.6b
24H VOL:
$113,284,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,858,735,640
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,620,345,032
79,029
Markets across
1,359
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
138
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Above 4.5%
- Kalshi
Above 4.5% - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolves Mar 31, 2027
Latest in Economics
How high will unemployment get before 2027?
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Description
This group forecasts the highest level of US unemployment that will be reached during the calendar year 2026. The markets rely on the official seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in their monthly Employment Situation Reports.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: The platforms offer markets with different unemployment rate thresholds for resolving to 'Yes'.Hero tip: Be mindful of the specific threshold when comparing probabilities across platforms. Lower thresholds on Kalshi mean higher probabilities of a 'Yes' resolution.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if unemployment reaches or exceeds 5.0%, 5.5%, 6.0%, 7.0%, or 10.0% in any month of 2026. "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate...is greater than or equal to the listed percentage."
- Kalshi: Offers markets with thresholds ranging from 4.5% to 20%, resolving 'Yes' if unemployment reaches or exceeds that level in any month of 2026. "If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above [threshold]%, the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Kalshi
These markets track whether the U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate reaches various threshold levels during any month in 2026. Each outcome resolves to Yes if the specified threshold is exceeded at any point during the calendar year, with thresholds ranging from above 4.5% to above 20%. The markets are structured hierarchically, where higher thresholds are nested within lower ones—for example, if unemployment reaches 6%, all outcomes for thresholds at or below 6% would resolve to Yes.
