TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.6b
24H VOL:
$113,284,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,858,735,640
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,620,345,032
79,029
Markets across
1,359
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
138
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
US recession by end of 2026?
- Polymarket
US recession by end of 2026? - Polymarket
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 31, 2027
Latest in Economics
US recession by end of 2026?
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Description
This group forecasts whether the United States will experience a recession by the end of 2026. A recession is defined either by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth or by an official declaration from the NBER. The markets aim to predict this economic outcome based on indicators like GDP and expert judgment.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket incorporates NBER recession declarations as a resolution condition, whereas Kalshi solely relies on consecutive negative GDP growth.Hero tip: If you anticipate the NBER might declare a recession even without two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, Polymarket provides exposure to that possibility. Otherwise, Kalshi offers a more direct tie to GDP performance.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth occur OR if the NBER declares a recession by Q4 2026. Key Quote: "This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met..."
- Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' only if two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth occur. Key Quote: "If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Kalshi
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
