TOTAL VOLUME:

$41.6b

24H VOL:

$113,284,831

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,858,735,640

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,620,345,032

79,029

Markets across

1,359

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

138

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

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How low will Bitcoin get in 2026?
kalshi

How low will Bitcoin get in 2026?

Feb 5, 2026, 3:30 PM EST - Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$7,054,674
Volume 24h:
$13,126
95%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$2,337,457
0.3%

Below $55,000.00

 - Kalshi

Below $55,000.00 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Bitcoin be below $55000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?

10%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 11¢ buys you 909 shares | Odds: 10% Total Payout: $909 | Net Profit: $809 Multiplier: 9.09x | ROI: 809% APY not meaningful 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Below $55,000.00

Trade
10%
Yes 11¢No 90¢
1¢
N/A
$1,854,025
0.27%
N/A
$592,550
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Below $50,000.00

Trade
9%
1%
Yes 9¢No 92¢
1¢
N/A
$1,581,213
0%
N/A
$580,328
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Below $40,000.00

Trade
5%
1%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
1¢
N/A
$1,403,764
0.58%
N/A
$533,419
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Below $45,000.00

Trade
5%
1%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
N/A
$1,021,464
0%
N/A
$337,536
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Below $60,000.00

View
99%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,194,208
N/A
N/A
$293,624
2mo 5d
Yes
Total markets: 5

Description

This market series tracks whether Bitcoin's price will fall below various thresholds during 2026. Bitcoin prices are measured using the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index, which provides a standardized reference for spot price determination throughout the year.

Kalshi

The event consists of five markets tracking whether Bitcoin's spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index will fall below specified thresholds ($60,000, $55,000, $50,000, $45,000, and $40,000) at any point between the measurement start date and December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET. Resolution uses a trimmed mean calculation of all BRTI minute-level values during the measurement period, removing the top and bottom 20% of values and averaging the remaining 60%. If Bitcoin crosses a threshold at any point during the measurement window, the market resolves immediately to Yes (early expiration). If no data is available at expiration, the market resolves to No. Markets can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.