TOTAL VOLUME:

$41.6b

24H VOL:

$113,284,831

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,858,735,640

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,620,345,032

79,029

Markets across

1,359

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

138

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

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How low will the S&P get this year?
kalshi

How low will the S&P get this year?

Jan 1, 2026, 12:00 AM EST - Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$938,482
Volume 24h:
$348
100%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$412,398
0.04%

6,300 or below

 - Kalshi

6,300 or below - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will the minimum SP500 value reach below 6300.01 by Jan 1, 2027?

10%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 10.9¢ buys you 917 shares | Odds: 10% Total Payout: $917 | Net Profit: $817 Multiplier: 9.17x | ROI: 817% APY not meaningful 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

6,300 or below

Trade
10%
2%
Yes 10.9¢No 90.1¢
1¢
N/A
$228,647
0.06%
N/A
$116,516
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

6,000 or below

Trade
5%
Yes 5.5¢No 94.7¢
0.2¢
N/A
$153,516
0%
N/A
$64,053
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

6,100 or below

Trade
5%
5%
Yes 9.7¢No 96.4¢
6.1¢
N/A
$86,264
0.12%
N/A
$40,216
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

5,900 or below

Trade
5%
Yes 4.6¢No 96.1¢
0.7¢
N/A
$360,080
0%
N/A
$143,629
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

6,200 or below

Trade
5%
2%
Yes 4.5¢No 97.9¢
2.4¢
N/A
$109,975
0.1%
N/A
$47,983
2mo 5d
active
Total markets: 5

Description

This event predicts how low the S&P 500 index will fall during 2026. Each outcome represents a different price floor, with resolution based on whether the index closes below that level at any point during the year.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the S&P 500 index value between January 1, 2026 and January 1, 2027. Each outcome resolves to Yes if the index value falls below its specified threshold (6300.01, 6200.01, 6100.01, 6000.01, or 5900.01) at any point during this period. The outcomes are nested such that if a lower threshold is breached, all higher thresholds are also satisfied. Resolution is based on the actual index value reaching below the specified level, not on closing prices alone.