TOTAL VOLUME:

$26.9b

24H VOL:

$53,643,865

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,063,853,505

56,734

Markets across

1,194

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

96

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

53%

VS.

Kalshi:

47%

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How low will the S&P get this year?
kalshi

How low will the S&P get this year?

Jan 1, 2026, 12:00 AM EST - Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$807,592
Volume 24h:
$634
63%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$379,783
0.11%

6,300 or below

 - Kalshi

6,300 or below - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will the minimum SP500 value reach below 6300.01 by Jan 1, 2027?

13%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 17.5¢ buys you 571 shares | Odds: 13% Total Payout: $571 | Net Profit: $471 Multiplier: 5.71x | ROI: 471% APY not meaningful 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

6,300 or below

Trade
13%
1%
Yes 17.5¢No 86.6¢
4.1¢
N/A
$174,603
0.04%
1%
$102,793
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

6,000 or below

Trade
8%
Yes 9.8¢No 92.9¢
2.7¢
N/A
$125,902
0.02%
0.53%
$47,949
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

6,200 or below

Trade
8%
Yes 9.7¢No 92.3¢
2¢
N/A
$99,942
0.1%
1%
$46,839
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

6,100 or below

Trade
7%
Yes 9.8¢No 92.8¢
2.6¢
N/A
$78,965
0.22%
0.57%
$39,731
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

5,900 or below

Trade
6%
Yes 9¢No 94.3¢
3.3¢
N/A
$328,180
0.08%
3%
$142,471
4mo 6d
active
Total markets: 5

Description

This event predicts how low the S&P 500 index will fall during 2026. Each outcome represents a different price floor, with resolution based on whether the index closes below that level at any point during the year.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the S&P 500 index value between January 1, 2026 and January 1, 2027. Each outcome resolves to Yes if the index value falls below its specified threshold (6300.01, 6200.01, 6100.01, 6000.01, or 5900.01) at any point during this period. The outcomes are nested such that if a lower threshold is breached, all higher thresholds are also satisfied. Resolution is based on the actual index value reaching below the specified level, not on closing prices alone.