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56,734

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Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
polymarket

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Apr 16, 2026, 7:52 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$8,410,249
Volume 24h:
$2,998
111%
Liquidity:
$202,063
54%
Open interest:
$189,447N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?

9%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 10¢ buys you 1,000 shares | Odds: 9% Total Payout: $1,000 | Net Profit: $900 Multiplier: 10.00x | ROI: 900% APY not meaningful 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
9%
Yes 10¢No 92¢
2¢
$49,643
$198,654
0.29%
3%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

September 30

Trade
2%
Yes 2.4¢No 98.4¢
0.8¢
$65,373
$257,274
0.47%
2%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

August 31

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.7¢
0.1¢
$87,047
$661,849
0.09%
2%
N/A
4d 18h 54m
active
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,523,899
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

July 31

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,153,125
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

May 31

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,540,442
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

April 30

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$75,006
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.