TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.6b
24H VOL:
$113,284,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,858,735,640
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,620,345,032
79,029
Markets across
1,359
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
138
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Before Jan 31, 2028
- Kalshi
Before Jan 31, 2028 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?
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Description
This group of markets asks whether Jerome Powell will leave his position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before specific dates. The markets cover a range of dates from May 30, 2024, to January 31, 2028, and aim to determine if he will resign, be removed, or otherwise cease to hold the position.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: The markets diverge on whether an *announcement* of leaving is sufficient for resolution (Kalshi) or if an *actual departure* is required (Polymarket).Hero tip: Kalshi markets may resolve 'Yes' earlier than Polymarket markets if Powell announces his intention to leave, even if he doesn't depart immediately. Factor this into your trading strategy.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if Powell ceases to hold any position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors by the specified date. Resolution source is U.S. Government or consensus of credible reporting. "Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'."
- Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if Powell has either officially announced their intention to leave or has actually left the Board of Governors by the specified date. Markets extend to January 31, 2028. "If Jerome Powell has either officially announced their intention to leave… or has actually left… then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Kalshi
Jerome Powell's departure resolves to Yes upon either an official announcement of his intention to leave or actual departure from the Board of Governors. An announcement must be made by Powell himself, his authorized representative, or the governing body and reported by at least one Source Agency; announcements of leaving more than one year in the future do not trigger resolution. Actual departure includes resignation, termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or term expiration without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining office do not qualify. Death does not satisfy the criterion. Forced departures satisfy the criterion even without prior announcement. Each time window (before Jun 1, 2026; before Jul 1, 2026; before Aug 1, 2026; before Sep 1, 2026; before Oct 1, 2026; before Nov 1, 2026; before Dec 1, 2026; before Jan 1, 2027; before Jun 1, 2027; before Jan 31, 2028) represents a separate market outcome, each resolving independently based on whether the departure event occurs before that deadline.