TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.6b
24H VOL:
$113,284,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,858,735,640
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,620,345,032
79,029
Markets across
1,359
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
138
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Roger Marshall (R)
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Kalshi
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 4, 2027
Latest in Politics
Time left: 07d:19h:02m
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
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Description
This group forecasts the winner of the 2026 Kansas U.S. Senate election. Markets cover both Democratic and Republican candidates, as well as the possibility of an independent or other candidate winning. Resolution depends on the official election results and reporting from major news sources.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms ultimately resolve based on the same criteria: the party affiliation of the candidate sworn in as Senator, using the same resolution sources.Primary resolution logic: Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (with fallback to official certification)Core resolution logic:
- The market resolves to 'Yes' if a candidate from either the Democratic or Republican party wins the election and is sworn into office.
- Independent candidates are not considered part of either the 'Democrat' or 'Republican' outcome.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Candidate Replacement: If a candidate is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee.
- No Consensus Call: If the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC do not all call the race for the same candidate, the market will resolve based on the official certification of the election results.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the party affiliation of the individual sworn in as Kansas Senator for the term beginning in 2027. If a Republican is sworn in, the market for Roger Marshall resolves to Yes. Conversely, if a Democrat is sworn in, the market for Adam Hamilton resolves to Yes. Both markets are eligible for accelerated determination once a consensus of media organizations projects the winner, allowing for early resolution before the official swearing-in ceremony, thereby reflecting real-time media consensus on the election outcome.