TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.6b
24H VOL:
$113,284,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,858,735,640
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,620,345,032
79,029
Markets across
1,359
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
138
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Democrat
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Kalshi
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 4, 2027
Latest in Politics
Time left: 07d:19h:06m
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
$
Description
This group forecasts the winner of the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate election. Markets cover both party-level outcomes (Democrat or Republican winning) and individual candidate outcomes, as well as the possibility of a candidate not listed winning.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi focuses on the swearing-in of the Senator, while Polymarket focuses on the election result as called by major news sources or official certification.Hero tip: Consider the potential for legal challenges or recounts that could delay the swearing-in process, impacting Kalshi markets even after Polymarket markets resolve.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on the election winner as called by AP, Fox News, and NBC, or official certification. Includes run-offs. Key Quote: "This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification."
- Kalshi: Resolves if a representative of a party is sworn in as Senator for the term beginning in 2027. Key Quote: "If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Maine for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by which party affiliation the individual sworn in as Senator of Maine for the 2027 term represents. A Republican party representative being sworn in resolves one outcome to Yes, while a Democratic party representative being sworn in resolves a different outcome to Yes.