TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.6b
24H VOL:
$113,284,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,858,735,640
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,620,345,032
79,029
Markets across
1,359
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
138
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Kathy Hochul (D)
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Kalshi
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Latest in Politics
Time left: 07d:18h:38m
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?
$
Description
This event group concerns the outcome of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election. Markets aim to predict which party will win the governorship, with some platforms offering markets on specific candidates or an 'Other' option.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Kalshi and Polymarket rely on the same core resolution criteria: the party of the inaugurated governor, with the same exclusion of independent candidates and the same resolution sources.Primary resolution logic: Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification)Core resolution logic:
- The market resolves to Yes if a Democratic candidate is inaugurated as governor.
- The market resolves to Yes if a Republican candidate is inaugurated as governor.
- Independent candidates are not considered part of either the 'Democrat' or 'Republican' options.
- Resolution is based on the consensus call of AP, Fox News, and NBC, or official certification if no consensus is reached.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Nominee Replacement: If a nominee is replaced before election day, the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the same party.
- Source Disagreement: If the three specified news sources do not agree on the winner, the official certification will be used to determine the resolution.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Kalshi
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of New York pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes. If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of New York pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.