TOTAL VOLUME:
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24H VOL:
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66,513
Markets across
1,349
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
139
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Marine Le Pen
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves May 31, 2027
Latest in Politics
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
$
Description
This group forecasts the winner of the next French Presidential Election, currently anticipated around April 2027. The election utilizes a two-round system, and markets resolve based on the candidate who ultimately wins, including potential runoffs. The questions cover a wide range of potential candidates.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket offers markets on a vastly larger set of potential candidates than Kalshi, introducing SKU risk and differing probabilities for 'other' outcomes.Hero tip: Focus on the more likely candidates on Kalshi to avoid the complexity of Polymarket's extensive list. Consider the implications of the 'another person' market on Polymarket – it requires a complete absence of viable, named candidates.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Offers markets on 128 potential candidates (named individuals and 'Person A' - 'Person CZ'). Resolves based on the official results from the French Ministry of the Interior. "If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'."
- Kalshi: Offers markets on a more limited set of 28 prominent candidates. Resolves based on the winner of the election. "If [Candidate Name] wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Kalshi
The event consists of multiple markets, each dedicated to a different candidate who might win the next French presidential election in 2027. For any given market, if the respective candidate listed in that market’s primary rule is declared the winner of the election, the market resolves to Yes. If any other candidate wins the election, all markets resolve to No. There are no additional secondary conditions affecting resolution beyond the outright victory of the named candidate in each market. The outcome of each market is binary—either the specified candidate wins (Yes) or they do not (No), with all markets evaluated simultaneously based on the final election result.