TOTAL VOLUME:
$26.9b
24H VOL:
$53,643,865
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,063,853,505
56,734
Markets across
1,194
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
96
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
53%
VS.
Kalshi:
47%
Marine Le Pen
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Predict
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Apr 30, 2027
Latest in Politics
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
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Description
This group of markets predicts the winner of the next French presidential election expected around April 2027. The election uses a two-round system where candidates must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright; if not, the top two contenders proceed to a runoff. Markets resolve based on the officially declared winner by the French Ministry of the Interior.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Predict use the same resolution criteria: official results from the French Ministry of the Interior, with a fallback to "Other" if results are unknown by December 31, 2027.Primary resolution logic: French Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/)Core resolution logic:
- The market resolves to the candidate who wins the election per official results from the French Ministry of the Interior.
- If no candidate is declared by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to "Other".
- Resolution is confirmed by consensus of credible reporting, with official results taking precedence in case of ambiguity.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Election Postponement: If the election is delayed beyond December 31, 2027, the market resolves to "Other".
- Tie or Ambiguity: In case of a tie or ambiguous results, resolution follows the official declaration by the French Ministry of the Interior.
Polymarket
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Predict
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
