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67,901
Markets across
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MATCHED EVENTS:
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
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Kalshi:
55%
Pope Leo XIV
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3 markets
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Vol.
·
Resolves Oct 9, 2026
Latest in Politics
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
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Description
This event group forecasts the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize. The prize is awarded annually by the Norwegian Nobel Committee to individuals or organizations who have done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies, and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses. The markets cover a wide range of potential recipients, including political figures, organizations, and individuals.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket includes a comprehensive tie-breaking system and 'Other' resolution, while Kalshi focuses on individual/organization-specific markets without these features.Hero tip: Prioritize trading on named individuals/organizations on Kalshi, but be mindful of Polymarket's tie-breaking and 'Other' resolution paths.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves to a single winner, prioritizing Trump, Zelenskyy, Netanyahu, Putin, and Musk in that order. If a joint prize includes a prioritized individual, that individual wins. If no prioritized individuals are present and recipients are of the same type, alphabetical order determines the winner. Resolves to 'Other' if no announcement by March 31, 2027.
- Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if the named individual or organization wins the prize. No tie-breaking rules or 'Other' resolution are specified. Lacks the 'Person A-Z' markets.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Kalshi
If Donald Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Francesca Albanese wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Narges Mohammadi wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Volodymyr Zelenskyy wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If European Union wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Elon Musk wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If International Court of Justice (ICJ) wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Minneapolis wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Dario Amodei wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sam Altman wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Yulia Navalnaya wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Save the Children wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Committee to Protect Journalists wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If International Criminal Court wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Pope Leo XIV wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If UNRWA wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Shehbaz Sharif wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Predict
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.