TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.6b
24H VOL:
$113,284,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,858,735,640
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,620,345,032
79,029
Markets across
1,359
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
138
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Sherrod Brown (D)
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Kalshi
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 16, 2026
Latest in Politics
Time left: 07d:19h:04m
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
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Description
This event group concerns the outcome of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate election. Markets aim to predict which party will win the seat, or which specific candidate will be elected, with resolution based on official election results and media calls.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket focuses on the election outcome and media calls, while Kalshi focuses on the swearing-in of a party representative.Hero tip: Prioritize Polymarket markets for more direct exposure to the election result. Be aware Kalshi's resolution could be delayed or affected by post-election events.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election, using a three-source media call consensus (AP, Fox, NBC) or official certification. "This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate."
- Kalshi: Resolves if a Republican or Democrat is sworn in as Senator for the 2027 term. Doesn't directly address the election outcome, but the subsequent swearing-in. "If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Ohio for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Ohio for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by which party affiliation the individual sworn in as Senator of Ohio for the 2027 term represents. A Republican party representative being sworn in resolves one outcome to Yes, while a Democratic party representative being sworn in resolves a different outcome to Yes.