TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.1b
24H VOL:
$108,040,032
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,819,523,799
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,638,571,346
66,513
Markets across
1,349
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
139
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
JD Vance
all
3 markets
Predict
Polymarket
Kalshi
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 21, 2029
Latest in Politics
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
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Description
This group forecasts the winner of the 2028 US Presidential Election. The markets resolve to 'Yes' if a specific candidate wins the election, and 'No' otherwise. Resolution is based on the official call by major news organizations.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms utilize the same primary resolution source (AP, Fox News, NBC) and resolve to the inaugurated candidate if a consensus isn't reached by inauguration day.Primary resolution logic: Associated Press, Fox News, and NBCCore resolution logic:
- The market resolves to 'Yes' for the candidate who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
- Resolution is based on the official call of the election by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
- If the three sources do not agree by January 20, 2029, the market resolves to the candidate who is inaugurated.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Inauguration Delay: If the inauguration is delayed, the resolution will occur when the inauguration actually takes place, using the same resolution sources.
- Contested Election: In the event of a contested election and legal challenges, the resolution will still be based on the official call by the AP, Fox News, and NBC, or the candidate who is ultimately inaugurated.
Polymarket
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes for whichever candidate is next inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029. Inauguration is the operative criterion—the individual must actually take the oath of office and assume the presidency, not merely win the election or be nominated. Only one person can be inaugurated for this term, so exactly one outcome will resolve to Yes.
Predict
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.