TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.6b
24H VOL:
$113,284,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,858,735,640
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,620,345,032
79,029
Markets across
1,359
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
138
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Kalshi
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Oct 27, 2027
Related News
Time left: 18h:16m:23s
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
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Description
This group forecasts the next Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election (or any earlier election that occurs). Resolution hinges on the formal appointment and swearing-in of an individual, excluding interim or caretaker positions.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets share identical core resolution criteria, focusing on the official appointment and swearing-in of a Prime Minister following an Israeli election, with a defined resolution deadline.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the Government of Israel; consensus of credible reportingCore resolution logic:
- Resolution requires formal appointment and swearing-in as Prime Minister.
- Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not count towards resolution.
- The election considered is the 2026 election, or any earlier election that occurs.
- Resolution will occur no later than October 27, 2027.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- No Prime Minister by Deadline: If no Prime Minister is sworn in by October 27, 2027, the market resolves to 'Other' (Polymarket) or remains unresolved (Kalshi does not explicitly state this, but the lack of a 'Yes' resolution implies this).
- Early Election: If an election is called before October 27, 2026, the markets will resolve based on the outcome of that earlier election.
Polymarket
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
The contract resolves to 'Yes' for any listed individual who becomes Prime Minister of Israel as a result of government formation following the 2026 legislative election, provided they meet all constitutional requirements before October 27, 2027. The resolution depends on the first person formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to Israel's constitutional procedures, who must command parliamentary confidence and exercise full executive powers—excluding caretaker or acting capacities from the prior government. If no coalition successfully forms a government by the deadline, the contract resolves to 'No one,' triggering a 'No' outcome for all listed individuals. Additionally, if new elections are called before a government is established, the contract immediately resolves to 'No one,' also resulting in a 'No' for all participants. This framework ensures that only a validated, fully empowered Prime Minister triggers a positive resolution.