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79,029
Markets across
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MATCHED EVENTS:
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Below 193
- Kalshi
Below 193 - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolves Feb 1, 2027
Latest in Politics
Will the Republican Party win 193 seats in the 120th Congress?
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Description
This group forecasts the number of seats the Republican Party will hold in the U.S. House of Representatives following the 2026 midterm elections. The markets cover a range of possible seat counts, from below 190 to 230 or more. Resolution will be based on official election results and reporting.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi uses a delayed snapshot date (February 1, 2027) while Polymarket resolves based on the immediate election results. Thresholds also differ slightly between platforms.Hero tip: Consider the potential for post-election changes (resignations, party switches) when trading Kalshi markets. Polymarket markets will likely resolve faster and reflect the initial election outcome more directly.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on the final seat count determined by official election results and credible reporting, attributing seats based on the party affiliation at the time of election. "If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected."
- Kalshi: Resolves based on the Republican Party’s seat count as of February 1, 2027. This introduces a delay and allows for potential changes after the election. "If the Republican Party has below 193 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Kalshi
Republican House seat totals are measured on February 1, 2027, with outcomes segmented into ranges: below 193, 193-197, 198-202, 203-207, 208-212, 213-217, 218-222, 223-227, 228-232, 233-237, and above 237 seats. Individuals caucusing with the Republican Party are included in the count. Each outcome range resolves to Yes if the Republican Party holds a number of seats within that specific range on the resolution date.