TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.6b
24H VOL:
$116,649,581
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,859,322,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,625,723,678
80,271
Markets across
1,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
138
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
J.D. Vance
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 7, 2028
Latest in Politics
Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?
$
Description
This group forecasts the eventual nominee of the Republican Party for the 2028 Presidential election. Resolution will depend on the official announcement of the nominee by the Republican Party.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi offers a single market resolving on any of a long list of candidates, while Polymarket has individual markets for many of the same candidates, plus a large number of 'Person X' markets. The resolution sources are similar but the scope differs significantly.Hero tip: Consider the implied probabilities across both platforms. Kalshi's market reflects the aggregate probability of *any* of the listed candidates winning, while Polymarket's individual markets allow for more specific bets.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Polymarket has numerous individual markets for potential nominees, and a general market for Donald Trump. Resolution is based on a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Description: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Kalshi: Kalshi has a single market resolving YES if *any* of the 38 listed candidates wins and accepts the nomination. Resolution is based on acceptance of the nomination. If Thomas Massie wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Kalshi
If Thomas Massie wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nikki Haley wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Greg Abbott wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If J.D. Vance wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ron DeSantis wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Glenn Youngkin wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Vivek Ramaswamy wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Donald J. Trump wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Donald J. Trump Jr. wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Elon Musk wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Brian Kemp wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Matt Gaetz wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Byron Donalds wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Elise Stefanik wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Josh Hawley wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ted Cruz wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Katie Britt wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If John Thune wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marco Rubio wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tulsi Gabbard wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kristi Noem wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mike Pence wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Steve Bannon wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Erika Kirk wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tucker Carlson wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marjorie Taylor Greene wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nicki Minaj wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tom Cotton wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rand Paul wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ivanka Trump wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Eric Trump wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Pete Hegseth wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lara Trump wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Spencer Pratt wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jeff Bezos wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Candace Owens wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.